Though unique in some ways, this unfolding recovery resembles past recoveries in other important respects. It may prove similar enough to help economists gain a better understanding of what policy can achieve in the face of hardship. Recent American recoveries have tended to be “jobless”, meaning that labour markets have taken far longer to regain lost ground than has overall production. During the seven recessions from 1948 to 1980, it took an average of about five quarters for to surpass its previous peak. Employment took only a little longer to recover: six quarters on average. From the 1980s onwards, however, the recovery in employment began to lag behind that in output. Across the four downturns preceding the covid-19 crisis, regained its peak in just six quarters, on average. But employment did not pass its previous high for a full 15 quarters. It is not quite right, of course, to such a good point call today’s recovery jobless. About 22m jobs were lost between February and April 2020, and 16.6m have since been added back. Still, hiring is once again lagging behind . Though output reached a new high in the second quarter, employment remained more than 4% below its pre-pandemic level. Moreover, the resulting jump in the level of output per worker over the course of this recovery looks remarkably similar to that which followed the global financial crisis (see chart). At present, America is producing more output than it managed just a year and a half ago, with roughly 6m fewer workers. This would seem to suggest that productivity has leapt across the economy. It may well have done. The pandemic has forced many firms to experiment with new technologies and working patterns and favoured some business models over others. The effect on output per worker in some sectors has been dramatic: labour productivity in retail trade jumped by nearly 8% in 2020, for example.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/08/07/americas-roaring-recovery-might-carry-lessons-for-future-recessions
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Rising prices didn't hurt Q2 restaurant traffic, studies show U.S. restaurant industry sales were strong in the second quarter, driven by pent-up demand and federal stimulus activity. This has given restaurants the opportunity to pass rising costs from labor and inflation on to consumers, according to research from Fitch Ratings . The monthly Food Away from Home Consumer Price Index rose to over 4% in June, after pacing mostly in the lower single-digit range since October 2009, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data cited by Fitch. Prices in the limited-service segment are up even higher — 6.2% — over the year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index Summary . Amid these price increases, consumer spending at restaurants still jumped 32% in the April, May and June quarter versus the year-ago quarter, and flat over the same quarter in 2019, according to The NPD Group . Restaurant traffic is still strong despite elevated prices and the looming threat of rising COVID-19 cases. NPD reports that the QSR segment experienced a 15% gain in visits during Q2 2021 compared to Q2 2020 and is down just 5% versus Q2 2019. QSR off-premise orders are also up by 9% over Q2 2019, driven by drive-thru and delivery orders. Meanwhile, total Q2 full-service visits are up by 60% year-over-year, though they remain down by 17% from the same period in 2019. Perhaps because of that pent-up demand from consumers, several brands expressed comfort in changing prices during the recent round of Q2 earnings calls. During Yum Brands' Q2 call , for example, CFO Chris Turner said, "We are also confident in the pricing power of our brands and partner closely with our franchisees as they make strategic pricing decisions in their respective markets to deal with cost pressures." Yum CEO David Gibbs added that franchisees use analytics to layer in costs over time so they "don't get too far ahead of the consumer." Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol said his company has pricing power due to a "tremendous value proposition." "If we're faced with any headwinds that warrants the need for pricing, I think we can do it with confidence knowing the brand is really strong," he said. Labor costs are rising, too. Compensation costs within the accommodation and foodservice industry were up 6.2% for the 12-month period ended June 2021 versus 3.1% among all private industry workers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics National Compensation Survey . That said, the industry remains below its pre-pandemic employment levels by about 6%. Fitch Ratings notes that operational efficiencies, many of which were adopted during the pandemic, are also helping restaurants better manage labor pressures. These efficiencies include menu simplification , waste reduction and QR code adoption . Fitch predicts the employment situation will continue to improve in the industry as vaccination rates increase and federal supplemental unemployment benefits expire in September. Challenges remain, however, as the industry is experiencing its highest quit rate ever as workers demand higher pay . More restaurants are meeting these pay demands.https://www.restaurantdive.com/news/rising-prices-didnt-hurt-q2-restaurant-traffic-studies-show/604703/